The long-awaited interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve was in line with expectations at 75 basis points. The financial market reacted positively to this decision in the following days. The positive business outlook of Amazon and Apple last Thursday was able to compensate for Meta’s weak quarterly figures and caused a price rally at the end of the week. The crypto market followed this positive trend on the stock market and also trended further north in the following days. Although Bitcoin (BTC) again missed a sustained breakout above the resistance mark of 24,200 US dollars, the crypto reserve currency can stabilize above the 23,000 US dollars for the time being at today’s weekly start. Which economic data and quarterly figures from the USA could have an influence on the price development of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Co this week, you can read in the following review article.
Focus on important company data
After the majority of the major US technology companies such as Microsoft, Apple and Amazon presented their quarterly figures last week, other relevant technology companies from the second row are opening their books this week. Investors should pay attention to the quarterly figures of the largest institutional Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy and the figures of the world’s largest payment service provider Paypal on Tuesday. Both companies are important players for the crypto space.
This week’s rain of figures is rounded off by business figures from the US broker Robinhood in the middle of the week and The Block’s quarterly report next Thursday. Possible revenue declines as well as weak business prospects for the second half of the year are likely to have a negative impact on the crypto sector.
First figures on the number of vacancies in the US on Tuesday
The JOLTS Job Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be published tomorrow, Tuesday, August 2, at 16:00 (CET). The experts’ forecast is 11 million open vacancies. In the previous month, the number of vacancies in the USA was 11.25 million. A further decline in the number of vacancies indicates a continuing economic slowdown. This again increases the likelihood of a downturn in the US. At the same time, a persistently negative development in the job market should be taken into account by the US Federal Reserve in its next interest rate decision in September.
The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (EMI) for Midweek services
On Wednesday, August 3, the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (EMI) for the service sector for the month of July will follow at 16:00 (CET). The Institute for Supply Management presents the results of the monthly recurring survey of 370 purchasing managers and company directors from 62 industries. The forecast of the experts for the past month is 53.3, after 55.3 in the previous month of June. Falling EMI figures indicate an increasing downturn in the important services sector. Worse-than-expected figures could prompt the Fed to rethink its interest rate policy more quickly. The stock market and thus the crypto market could interpret less good figures bullish.
First applications for unemployment benefits in the USA on Thursday
On the following Thursday, August 4, at 14:30 (CET), the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the USA will be presented. Currently, 259,000 new initial applications are expected. In the previous week, this figure was 256,000. If this figure continues to rise as in the previous week, the Fed could still decide, rather than propagated, to launch new financial relief in order to avert a sharp rise in unemployment figures in the coming months.
Big labor market report at the end of the week
On the last day of the first trading week, August 5, at 14:30 (CET), the non-agricultural employment figures in the USA (NFP) for the past month of July will be published. These so-called ”nonfarm payrolls” describe the monthly change in the number of employees without employees in agriculture. The monthly labor market report is the most important and meaningful indicator among the US economic indicators. Rising job growth is seen as an indication of an improvement in the labor market and the associated increase in consumer spending. If, on the other hand, job growth is corrected, this is an important indication of increasing problems in the labor market.
In the past, declining job growth often had a negative effect on future consumer spending. The forecast for the month of July is 250,000 employees. Compared to the previous month (372,000), the experts’ forecasts are again set well below the published figures for the month of June. Weak NFP figures have a negative impact on the US dollar, which could have a beneficial effect on the development of the Bitcoin exchange rate. In addition, weak labor market data would be another reason for the US Federal Reserve to reconsider the planned interest rate increases.
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