IDC has selected three appropriate letters to exit cruisemax Wolf | 05.06.2020
IDC has tried to predict what the letter will go to the restoration of the Russian IT-industry “U”, “V” or “L”. His vision was shared by the head of the Russian office of research company Robert
Farish. Despite a good knowledge of Russian, he made a small half-hour report on the Russian market in English that I can talk about for whom this work is largely
designed.
The prognosis of IDC curious in the first place so that the company has tried to compare the current crisis with the previous two in 2008 and 2014. And despite the fact that they have completely different causes
the occurrence of any crisis is a consequence of certain reasons.
For comparison crises as key performance indicators in the IDC chose our favorite, timeless values courses in oil and the ruble, GDP, and, in fact, bound to him for life and death –
the dynamics of the IT industry.
In the 2008/2009 biennium the price of a barrel of Brent fell by 48%, the ruble fell by 22%, GDP fell 7.8%, the IT industry dipped by 32%.
In the 2014/2015 oil: 2% ruble: -37%, GDP and 2.8%, IT: -38%.
For 2020 the numbers decline, IDC gives you the following: oil -48%, the ruble -20% GDP -6% and IT was 35%.
A clear formula describing the crisis the correlation of the above indicators to bring, apparently, is not possible, so that when the projections of the works is likely to intuition. Roughly
put all results in one large forecast: the recession came, wait for the fall in it – at least a third.
But the current pandemic is a special case. Since indicators (including forecast) change literally in front of everyone. The speed of events Robert Farish is described as something that happened
earlier in the quarter goes through in a week. Oil, which earlier in the year was nearly buried on the mark in the area of thirty dollars per barrel for a few days in your forties. Fears that China
(due to stop of production) will not be able to provide the recovering demand is cleared. Concerns remained that the negative impact of the lack of help medium and small businesses from the
the Russian state, which analysts estimate the world as too weak in comparison with that which was said, or even trying to provide developed countries. But Robert Farish noted that
driver the IT-industry in Russia traditionally are not in favor of SMB and Enterprise segment, i.e. the largest enterprises and organizations. Including state. And here there has been even more
a significant strengthening of the role of public procurement, which now steers the dynamics of the industry. While the commercial sector thinks about whether or not to restore the tenders, the state, as noted by Farish, does not sleep,
and selects IT provider to ensure the voting process during the referendum on amendments to the Constitution. And this gostender, hopefully, will be this year will be not the only one.
As correct we still.
If you break the overall recovery of the Russian economy on the industry, IDC predicts that by 2023, compared to 2019, the highest rates (approximately 210%) will demonstrate
health. Farish explained that the increase will be the result not only of rapid state, but the low base and still too stingy it investments of Russian medical institutions.
The worst case recovery will be the companies focused on the provision of services to private users (consumer services) and in insurance and construction industries. We will see
unlikely to recover to the level of 60-70%. In the banking sector, all will be relatively well – it will rise, according to IDC, at the level of about 90% of the current.
Robert Farish believes that the rapid recovery of it will not happen in any case. IT companies and their customers will come to his senses gradually, partly keeping those optimization measures
were adopted during a pandemic. Remote work as the norm, as well as online instead of offline events – all this will become part of a new postpandemic the world.
And the letter at which everything is moving… It has remained a mystery. But we, in any case, we will keep in memory all three. U – Unbelievable, V – Very optimistic, “L” – Let’s just
go from the bottom.
IT market
Journal: Journal IT-News, Subscription to magazines
IDC
