The current bear market for Bitcoin (BTC) is the worst ever, according to a report by on-chain analysis firm Glassnode. For the first time in the history of Bitcoin, its Mayer Multiple has slipped below the lowest level of the previous cycle. When Bitcoin fell below $20,000 on June 18, investors also recorded the largest loss ever in one day at $4.23 billion. Given the above factors and some other events, Glassnode believes that the capitulation on Bitcoin may have begun.
The Bitcoin whales also seem to be buying, suggesting that the bottom may be reached soon. And on June 25, the analysis resource “Game of Trades” pointed out that there was a sharp increase in demand on the part of whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency market daily performance. Source: Coin360
Glassnode has discovered another sign that traders are buying. The 30-day average change in the offer on the stock exchanges fell by 153,849 Bitcoin on June 26. This is the largest decline ever recorded.
Do the bulls continue to buy during declines and create a higher low? Let’s look at the charts on this.
Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26, indicating that sentiment is still negative and traders are selling at every small rally. The bears will try to lower the rate to the psychologically important level of $ 20,000.
BTC/USDT Daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price recovers from $ 20,000, this indicates that the bulls are buying on declines. This could leave the pair in a range between $20,000 and $22,000 for a few days.
The first sign of strength would be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA at $22,890. This would allow a rally towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $24,693.
At this level, there could be resistance, but if the bulls overcome this hurdle, BTC/USDT could climb to the 50-day SMA at $27,150. The bulls would have to let the price rise above this level to signal that the pair has reached a bottom.
Ether (ETH) climbed to the 20-day EMA at $1,300 on June 26, but the bulls could not make the price rise above this resistance. This suggests that the bears are not giving up their advantage so easily.
ETH/USDT Daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to lower ETH/USDT to $ 1,050. This level should be kept in mind, as a dip below it would signal that the bears have the upper hand.
However, if the price rises from the current level or from $ 1,050, the bulls will try to make the pair rise above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the pair could climb up to the break-in level at $ 1,700. A breakout and close above this resistance would signal the beginning of a new uptrend.
Ripple (XRP) broke out above the resistance at $0.35 on June 24 and was able to close above it. However, the bulls could not overcome the resistance at the 50-day SMA at $ 0.38. This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending this level.
XRP/USDT Daily chart. Source: TradingView
On the positive side, the bulls have not allowed the price to fall back below the 50-day SMA at $0.35. This signals that you are buying during declines. If the price recovers from the current level, the bulls will again try to make the price rise above the 50-day SMA.
If they succeed, it indicates that the downtrend will weaken. XRP/USDT could then rise to $0.45.
However, the bears could also lower the price below $ 0.35 again. If this happens, the pair could slip to $ 0.32, and then to $ 0.28.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and every trade involves risks. Do your research well before making a decision.
The market data comes from the crypto exchange HitBTC.
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