Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed further towards $ 22,000 on August 25 today, with the realized price opening up as the next big hurdle for further gains.
Bitcoin Price Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
The realized course gives hope
As the data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show, the Bitcoin price was able to rise slightly on Thursday so far and rose again to 21,700 US dollars.
This mark coincides with the aforementioned Realized course, which was already identified the day before as the next large resistance area for a climbing game. At the time of writing, however, this could not yet be overcome.
“We are already back on the realized course,” as crypto analyst Root notes. He adds a price chart to this, from which it can be seen how Bitcoin has been trading along this crucial mark in recent weeks and months.
In the crisis of 2022, the price has so far stayed below the “realized price” for longer than during the bear markets in 2018 and 2014.
In a subsequent post, however, the expert gives reason for hope, because the 90-day change in the realized price is currently at a level that in the past was a harbinger of a longer uptrend.
Accordingly, root sees a strong “macro signal” here.
Realized course of Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph had reported, several long-term indicators are slowly giving hope again, which is why some observers even assume that there will be no further big losses.
For example, Aurelien Ohayon, CEO of XOR Strategy, again refers to the relationship between the Bitcoin price and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which, according to his reading, also announces an early return to the uptrend.
Just like his colleague Root, the crypto expert points out that the gap between 200 SMA and price is currently similar to the one during the lows in the bear markets of 2018 and 2014.
Based on the associated chart (see below), Ohayon concludes that it will soon be back in the “bull run” for Bitcoin. An optimistic reading, which, however, also earns him criticism.
Bitcoin price and 200 SMA. Source: Aurelien Ohayon/ Twitter
Jackson Hole Conference takes center stage
The trader Il Capo of Crypto, on the other hand, remains with his conservative forecast in the short term that there will first be a jump to $ 22,000 before it goes down noticeably again.
– il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 24, 2022
Cointelegraph expert Michaël van de Poppe, who recently hoped that the $ 21,500 mark could be established as a new support, meanwhile sees the macroeconomic factors as the driving force for the further price development of BTC.
In particular, the upcoming conference of the American Central Bank in Jackson Hole tomorrow, August 26, would point the finger for the coming weeks.
In addition, van de Poppe sees the new inflation figures from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the fluctuating balance of power between the euro and the US dollar as important markers to consider.
The US Dollar index (DXY), which is known to have an inverse correlation to the crypto market, has lost again today after gains the day before, which gives a new boost, at least for the moment.
US Dollar Index (DXY). Source: TradingView