Bitcoin (BTC): First soil formation attempts in the 4-hour chart
BTC Rate: 22,629 USD (Previous day: 31,700 USD)
Short-term resistance/goals: $23,289, $24,291, $25,460, $26,170, $27,074, $27,696/$27,975, $28,607, $29,256, $29,975, $30,612, $31,750, $32,383
Short-term support: $21,892, $20,816, $19,884, $19,500, $17,860, $15,000
4-Hour chart Price analysis based on the value pair BTC/USD on Coinbase
- If the crypto reserve currency Bitcoin was initially able to stabilize in the area of $ 30,000 in the previous week, last Friday, June 10, a dynamic break of the turquoise sideways channel downwards occurred as a result of the disastrous inflation figures in the USA.
- Bitcoin broke through the important supports at $ 28,005 and $27,047 the following day. On Sunday, the last trading day of the week, the downward momentum continued to increase. A massive price drop of the lending provider Celsius caused a panic sale on the entire crypto market in the night from Sunday to Monday.
- Bitcoin broke through the annual low at $ 25,350 and within a few hours slipped to the relevant support at $ 21,892.
- Although this support was also briefly undercut this morning and Bitcoin fell back to the 20,816 USD, it has been able to save itself several times in the following hours via the 4-hour closing price via the important support at 21,892 USD.
- This support mark acts as the last relevant support of the bulls before the psychologically important $ 20,000 mark.
- In total, long bets on Bitcoin in the amount of almost $ 1 billion were liquidated during this period. On Monday alone, it was more than $ 500 million within 24 hours.
- The total market capitalization also dropped significantly to the south and fell back below 1 trillion US dollars to 860 billion US dollars.
- On Tuesday afternoon, the two major US stock indices Nasdaq100 and SP500 also reached strong support levels.
- Since many investors are waiting for the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve, a sideways phase is expected in the short term until 20.00 (CET) tomorrow Wednesday.
- Bitcoin is also currently trading in the area of the moving average line of recent weeks at $ 22,362. This important support line has already been the target of corrections for Bitcoin several times in the past. Another argument that the course could stabilize.
- Looking at the indicators, the RSI has now returned to the oversold area in the weekly chart with a value of 29, which could also indicate a possible technical countermovement in the medium term.
Bullish Scenario (BTC):
- The bulls are currently recovering from the massive price drop of the last 96 hours of trading.
- If Bitcoin can stabilize above the $ 21,892 on a 4-hour basis and subsequently regain its daily high at $ 23,289, the resistance at $ 24,291 will initially come into view as an increase target. Here, the BTC price is likely to fail in the first attempt.
- If the buyer side breaks through this resist, the recovery will initially extend to the range between $ 24,460 and $ 26,170. This is also where the supertrend runs in the 4-hour chart. A price rebound is therefore very likely.
- If Bitcoin breaks through this resistance area in the coming trading days, and the EMA50 (orange) in the area of $ 27,074 is also recaptured, it is to be planned with a retest of the breaking edge at $ 27,975.
The goals on the top are limited
- In addition to the tear-off edge, the golden pocket of the current price movement can also be found here.
- At a maximum, Bitcoin could briefly touch the 28,607 USD before a further price correction back to the south has to be expected.
- If, contrary to expectations, Bitcoin can also recapture this strong resistance area, a price recovery up to $ 29,256 and $ 29,975 is conceivable. Since the EMA200 (blue) is also running in the $ 30,000 range, it should be difficult for the bulls to rise back towards the monthly highs.
- The maximum target range for the upcoming trading weeks is between $31,750 and $32,383. For the time being, it is difficult to imagine a reconquest of this zone. The bears will want to counter-strike in this area at the latest.
Bearish Scenario (BTC):
- The bears not only parried every attack of the buyer’s side in the last week, but also sold off the crypto reserve currency in turn under high volume.
- Any attempts by the bull camp to stabilize Bitcoin in the area of $ 28,000 were thwarted by the seller’s side.
- As a result, the bears broke through the annual low at $ 25,349 on the night of Sunday to Monday. By triggering many stop-loss orders, the selling momentum increased significantly. This sent Bitcoin right up to the support at $21,892. In the early hours of this morning on Tuesday, Bitcoin fell in the low to the 20,816 USD, but was then able to save itself back above the 21,892 USD. The last four 4-hour candles Bitcoin all closed above this support mark.
- After this strong sell-off, the BTC price seems to be stabilizing by 30 percent within three trading days. However, the interest rate decision tomorrow evening could already initiate a new sell-off wave below today’s low.
Old all-time high comes into view
- If the 20,816 USD is dynamically undershot, a retest of the old all-time high from December 2017 between 19,500 USD and 19,881 USD is to be expected. In the first attempt, Bitcoin is likely to bounce north here.
- However, if the stock market continues to come under significant pressure in the wake of the Fed decision, a sell-off up to $ 17,860 is also conceivable. This is the parent 78 Fibonacci retracement from the weekly chart.
- The bulls are likely to want to use this price mark more for long entries.
- If there is no sustainable recovery movement in the coming trading weeks and Bitcoin slips below the $ 17,860 at the end of the day, the maximum price target of $ 15,000 will become the focus of investors. This support level is taken from the monthly chart.
- As long as the buyer side can defend the area around the psychologically important $ 20,000 mark, a bottom formation is not excluded here either.