Tesla has confirmed its forecast of deliveries is 500 thousand in 2020 last week. Analyst at New Street Research that predicts the growth of Tesla stock, expects the delivery of the company may grow to the range of 840 thousand – 1 million vehicles in 2021 given the installed production capacity.
Tesla (TSLA) has reached another record in deliveries in the third quarter, despite an overall decline in sales in the global automotive industry.
Commenting on the financial report of last week’s “best quarter in Tesla’s history”, chief financial officer of Tesla Zachary Kirkhorn confirmed the purpose of the supply of 500 thousand cars in 2020.
Despite the fact that the year is not over yet and Tesla has not yet fulfilled its promises, analysts give forecasts for the future 2021.
New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu increased their estimates of Tesla stock and gave high projections for supplies once at the beginning of October, the company announced the supply of the 3rd quarter, which exceeded expectations of Wall Street. The analyst raised its rating on Tesla shares from “hold” to “buy” and target price from $400 to $578.
Ferragu referred to industry changes: “the automotive industry relies on electricity”; and the availability of the base price of Model 3 at $35 million: “approximately 15% lower than that of the sedans of premium class with the ice (internal combustion engine)”.
The analyst said that Tesla has installed production capacity, which will allow the automaker to supply from 840 000 to 1 million vehicles in 2021, which would correspond to growth of about 70% to 100% of the goal of half a million cars in 2020.
Answering the question about the reality of such prediction (in the comments to the income statement profit for the 3rd quarter) Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that he is close to possible.
Ferragu explained that the figure of 840 thousand supply coming from the existing actual production capabilities of the factories Tesla.
Company production line at its plant in Fremont, California, can produce the Model S and X a total volume of 90 000 units per year and 500 000 for Model 3 and Y together. The capacity of the new Tesla factory in Shanghai is 250 000 cars Model 3 per year. In addition, the company is building a production line for the Model Y in Shanghai and promises to begin the deliveries of large pickups Cybertruck by the end of 2021, but “if things go well.”
Tesla will have to exert a lot of effort and investment as the company is building a plant in Berlin, Germany, and preparing for the construction of a plant in Austin, Texas. Tesla announced the amount of investment of $2.5 billion and expects to start deliveries in the next year, while warning that growth is initially slow but later it will be “very big”. The ambitious plans of the company should help its own production of batteries, which Tesla is currently in talks with the world’s largest suppliers of raw materials.
Rapid increase in the rate of production at two factories Tesla and its success in sales say that the company really, can expect another jump in deliveries in the following year.